SQL Server 2016 goes end of life on July 14, 2026. That's five months from now.
If you're still running 2016 in production, you're not alone. Based on one vendor's assessment, SQL Server 2016 is still 20% of production deployments. That's a lot of DBAs who need to get moving pretty much now.
Here's the problem: Many of those upgrades are going to break. Not because the engine upgrade fails, but because SQL Server 2025 changed the defaults. Silently. In ways that won't show up until you're already committed.
The Deadline
After July 14, 2026:
- No more security patches
- No more support calls
- No longer compliant
You can buy Extended Security Updates (ESU) for up to three more years. But ESU only covers critical security patches — no bug fixes, no features, and the cost increases each year. It's a holding pattern, not a solution.
The real solution is to upgrade. And if you're planning on 2016 to 2025, you're about to learn that Microsoft quietly raised the security baseline while we weren't looking.
What Changed in 2025
SQL Server 2025 ships with MSOLEDBSQL 19, and its defaults are different from what you've been using. The new provider enforces:
- Encrypt = True by default
- TrustServerCertificate = False by default
- Strict certificate chain validation
Translation: if your environment uses self-signed certificates, internal CAs that aren't in the trust store, or no encryption at all — connections will fail. Unavoidably.
This affects linked servers, replication, log shipping, and any application still using legacy connection strings. The old SQL Native Client (SQLNCLI) used to suppress or ignore these errors. MSOLEDBSQL 19 does not.
Three Things That Will Break
1. Linked Servers
If you configured linked servers using SQLNCLI (which was the default for years), they'll fail after upgrade with errors like:
Msg 7303, Level 16, State 1 Cannot initialize the data source object of OLE DB provider "MSOLEDBSQL" for linked server "LinkedServerName". TCP Provider: The certificate chain was issued by an authority that is not trusted.
The fix is to either install proper certificates or reconfigure the linked server with TrustServerCertificate=yes — which defeats the security improvement but at least gets you running.
2. Replication
If your publisher is SQL Server 2025 and your distributor is remote without a trusted certificate, replication will fail. You'll see:
OLE DB provider "MSOLEDBSQL19" for linked server "repl_distributor" returned message "Client unable to establish connection". Msg -2146893019, Level 16, State 1 SSL Provider: The certificate chain was issued by an authority that is not trusted.
This hits transactional, snapshot, peer-to-peer, and merge replication. Replication Monitor in SSMS will also fail if it can't validate the certificate chain.
The workaround (if you can't deploy trusted certificates yet):
EXEC sp_changedistributor_property
@property = N'trust_distributor_certificate',
@value = N'yes';
3. Full-Text Search
SQL Server 2025 introduces a new full-text index version. Existing catalogs stay on version 1 (unchanged since 2005) unless you manually upgrade them. After the engine upgrade, your full-text queries will fail:
Msg 30010, Level 16, State 2 An error has occurred during the full-text query. Common causes include: word-breaking errors or timeout, FDHOST permissions/ACL issues, service account missing privileges, malfunctioning IFilters...
The fix is to rebuild your full-text indexes — or if you need to keep using the old version temporarily:
ALTER DATABASE SCOPED CONFIGURATION SET FULLTEXT_INDEX_VERSION = 1;
But version 1 is deprecated. This is a temporary workaround, not a long-term solution.
And if you're using Database Mail, there's another bug that forced Microsoft to pull back a fix. Be sure to check Database Mail status before you upgrade.
What to Check Now
Before you upgrade anything, audit these:
| Component | What to Check |
|---|---|
| Linked Servers | Provider (SQLNCLI vs MSOLEDBSQL), encryption settings, certificate trust |
| Replication | Remote distributor topology, certificate chain on all nodes |
| Log Shipping | Remote monitor server, same TLS requirements as linked servers |
| Full-Text Indexes | Current index version, rebuild time estimates |
| Connection Strings | Legacy providers, missing Encrypt/TrustServerCertificate params |
| SSIS Packages | Execute SQL Task / SMO tasks using Dts.Runtime API — update references, rebuild |
Run this to find your linked server providers:
SELECT
s.name AS linked_server,
s.provider,
s.data_source
FROM sys.servers s
WHERE s.is_linked = 1;
Any row showing SQLNCLI or SQLNCLI11 needs attention before upgrade.
The Upgrade Path
SQL Server 2025 supports direct in-place upgrades from 2016. That doesn't mean it's easy — it means it's possible.
The safe approach:
- Audit linked servers, replication, full-text, and SSIS before touching anything
- Deploy certificates or workarounds for each component
- Test in a non-production environment — not just the upgrade, but every downstream connection
- Plan for full-text index rebuilds (this takes time on large catalogs)
- Schedule the production upgrade with sufficient buffer time for surprises
If you haven't started yet, you need to get moving. Five months sounds like plenty of time until you recognize that your replication topology spans three datacenters and nobody knows where the certificates are.
The Bottom Line
The engine upgrade isn't the hard part. Discovering what breaks is.
Microsoft raised the security baseline in 2025. That's a good thing — in the long run. But if you're jumping from 2016, you're skipping several versions of gradual tightening and jumping right into the deep end.
Test it soon. July is right around the corner.
More to Read:
sqlfingers: SQL Server 2025 Current State
Brent Ozar: Known Issues So Far in SQL Server 2025
MSSQLTips: SQL Server 2025 Upgrade Lessons Learned
endoflife.date: Microsoft SQL Server